To understand magmatic processes within the silicate planets, accurate pressure and temperature estimates are essential. These conditions are often measured using thermobarometers based on mineral equilibria, but their precision is limited, particularly for barometers, with standard error estimates often exceeding 200 megapascals. Here we present an approach combining thermodynamics and statistics to rigorously investigate these uncertainties. Uncertainty propagation and Sobol analysis reveal that thermometer uncertainties are primarily driven by compositional analytical uncertainty, while barometer uncertainties are dominated by model parameters. Given the quality of current calibration data, even a perfect thermodynamic model has a built-in minimum uncertainty of 120–240 megapascals for barometer and 22–41？°C for thermometer. Furthermore, we demonstrate that pressure and temperature estimates are interdependent; an error in one inevitably compromises the other. Our work provides a pathway for building more reliable thermobarometric models and underscores the need for new, high-quality experimental data.
Article link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02831-y
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